Six months before the November midterm elections, the Republican Party faces a deteriorating political climate, with Americans broadly dissatisfied with President Donald Trump’s leadership on the Iran war and other key issues and an electorate in which Democrats are significantly more motivated to vote, according to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll.

Trump’s approval on economic issues, which were critical to his political comeback in 2024, has fallen since he launched the Iran war in late February.

Americans disapprove of his handling of the situation with Iran by 66% to 33%. His rating on the economy has declined by seven points, to 34%, as gas prices have spiked. His approval rating on inflation has fallen five points in that time to 27% and his lowest rating comes on perceptions of his handling of the general cost of living, with 23% approving vs. 76% disapproving.

Trump’s overall approval now stands at 37%, largely the same as the 39% figure in February. But his disapproval has reached 62%, the highest of his two terms in office. Among Republicans, Trump’s approval has held steady at 85%, but his ratings among Republican-leaning independents have reached a new low of 56%. His approval rating stands at 25% among independents overall.

Trump gets his best ratings for handling immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border (45% approval and 54% disapproval). His ratings for handling immigration overall are worse at 40% approving and 59% disapproving, hardly changed from 40% positive vs. 58% negative in February, though that marked the worst for his second term.

The president’s weak approval ratings put the Republicans’ slender House majority in danger and now threaten their Senate majority as well. Among registered voters, Democrats hold a five-point advantage on the question of which party people favor in House elections. That is up from a two-point edge in February and October.

The Democrats’ advantage grows to nine points among those who are absolutely certain to vote. Democrats also are far more likely than Republicans to say voting this fall is more important than previous midterms (73% vs. 52%), a shift from 2022 when the parties were roughly even on this (72% among Republicans vs. 68% of Democrats).

The gap in enthusiasm is partly explained by a split in Trump’s base. Those Republicans who identify as MAGA are more likely (77%) to say they are absolutely certain to vote, compared with 59 percent of the smaller group of non-MAGA Republicans. Meanwhile, 79% of all self-identified Democrats say they are absolutely certain to vote.

Democrats registered some gains in the public’s perception of which party is more trusted to handle some major issues — one more indicator of the Republicans’ changing fortunes. The most significant gain for Democrats came on the economy. The new poll finds the public evenly split, with 34% saying they trust Republicans, 33% saying they trust Democrats and the rest saying they trust neither or both equally. When this was asked ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans had a double-digit advantage on the economy.

The other issue where Democrats have gained in trust is inflation. The new poll finds the public evenly split, but in 2022, when President Joe Biden was in office and dealing with rising prices, Republicans had a double-digit advantage. The Republican advantage on immigration has shrunk to single digits, five points in the latest poll.

But Republicans maintain a large advantage on trust to handle crime, while Democrats are more trusted to handle healthcare, education and the cost of living in the U.S. (slightly better for Democrats than inflation).

Large numbers of Americans say they trust “neither” political party to handle major issues, including 23% who say this about immigration, 27% on the economy, 28% on crime and 33% on inflation. A slight majority (51%) trusts neither party to handle artificial intelligence.

Asked who they support for Congress, registered voters who lack a preferred party on most issues in the poll support Democrats over Republicans by 49% to 32%, though just about half say they are certain to vote.

A growing share of Americans question Trump’s mental acuity for the position. Nearly 6 in 10 (59%) say he does not have the mental sharpness and a majority (55%) say he is not in good enough physical health to serve effectively. Both are slightly more negative than they were in the February survey and are significantly more negative than last September.

On other attributes, 71% say he is not honest and trustworthy, nearly 67% say he does not carefully consider important decisions and 54% say that he is not a strong leader.

Top officials in the administration draw consistently low marks from Americans, with none of five asked about in net positive territory. The disapproval ratings are as follows: Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., net negative 19 percentage points; FBI Director Kash Patel, net negative 19 points; Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, net negative 17 points; Vice President JD Vance, net negative 13 points; Secretary of State Marco Rubio, net negative seven points.

Embattled Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell came out best in these rankings, with a net positive rating of seven points.